Silicon Valley and Washington have both been in a rage over revelations that Cambridge Analytica – a pro-Trump “psychographic” consultancy – had a hold of personal information on 87,000,000 Facebook users.
While privacy and ethics have been the focus of much of this debate, there is still a question: Is psychological targeting an effective tool for digital propaganda?
According to a Stanford scientist who developed many original methods, “yes.”
“I have been warning about the risks of this for years,” says Michal KOSINSKI, assistant professor of organizational behavior at Stanford Graduate School of Business. Our latest research confirms this type of psychological targeting as an effective tool for digital mass persuasion.
Kosinski has never worked at Cambridge Analytica and never obtained Facebook data without the users’ consent.
Take advantage of Facebook “Likes”
Kosinski, a former doctoral student at Cambridge University and Deputy Director of the Cambridge University Psychometrics Center between 2008 and 2014, worked with a coworker to determine if it was possible for Facebook “likes” to reveal psychological traits.
For instance, people who liked Battlestar Galactica were likelier to be introverts. Those who wanted Lady Gaga, on the other hand, were likely extroverts. Kosinski and his Cambridge colleague David Stillwellopens in the new window could correlate “likes” to further essential personality characteristics: openness and conscientiousness. They also found that neuroticism and agreeableness are associated. With only 10 “likes,” they could evaluate someone more accurately than their coworkers. They could outperform close friends with 70 “likes.”
In a study, Kosinski and his colleagues, including Stillwell, Sandra Matz of Columbia Business School, and Gideon Nave of Wharton School of Business, confirm that the next logical move is to tailor ads according to these psychological traits.
Research is a Warning
Kosinski doesn’t brag about it.
He says that “most of my studies were intended as warnings.” “You can imagine good applications, but it is much easier to imagine applications that will manipulate people into making decisions against their interests.”
He and his coworkers created a Facebook application that allows people to complete a personality quiz that measures five personality traits. Then, they asked for users’ “likes” and accumulated a database of 3 million profiles.
Kosinski & Stillwell created algorithms that correlate people’s “likes” with their results on a personality questionnaire. This allows them to accurately deduce various personality traits based on a person’s Facebook activity.
Cambridge Analytica’s founders adopted similar methods and applied them in politics. They went one step further and used their app, which collected the Facebook data of tens of millions of users who were simply friends of those who took the quiz.
Kosinski and his colleagues wanted to test whether psychological targeting could improve advertising results. Researchers ran three Facebook ad experiments.
Measure the effectiveness of targeted ads
They ran ads that were aimed both at introverts as well as extroverts to promote a cosmetics line. Three million people saw the ads.
The introvert ad featured a woman looking in the mirror, contemplating her reflection, and the quiet slogan “Beauty does not have to shout.”
People were 50% more likely than others to purchase cosmetics when they saw an ad targeted at them.
Researchers found similar results when they promoted an app that allows users to solve crossword puzzles on smartphones by targeting them based on their willingness to try new things.
People identified as very open were encouraged to “unleash their creativity” by solving “an infinite number” of puzzles. People identified as likely to stick to the familiar were told to “settle down with an old favorite.”
The game was 30% more likely to be downloaded by those who saw an ad targeting their openness level.
Kosinski, his coworkers, and a third group of testers tested ads competing for a game they knew was popular with introverts. The first ad was a typical action-packed pitch. “Ready?” Fire !…” This second ad targeted introverts with the phrase “Phew!” A long day? What about a puzzle for you to wind down?” The ads targeted at introverts received 30% more clicks and 20% more downloads.
Kosinski believes it is probably impossible to ban psychological targeting as an instrument of political propaganda. However, he argues that people can protect themselves by understanding how it works. It may be possible to implement policies that will prevent abuses.
He says, “It is a little like fire.” “You can burn down your house or use it to warm up your home. It’s impossible to ban fire and stop people from setting things on fire. “What you need is firefighters and fire safety equipment.”
